For several weeks now, rumors have been circulating about Ramzan Kadyrov’s deteriorating health. Over the weekend, there were even reports that he had died.

There was a video of the Chechen warlord, where he allegedly said everything was fine, but it is unknown when this video was recorded. Russian journalists and bloggers write that many cars with Chechen license plates drive up to the hospital where Kadyrov could potentially be. People ask me what could happen to Russia if Chechnya actually loses Kadyrov, the man who has kept the region in fear for many years. Could this lead to some kind of destabilization in the whole of Russia?

If what our Defense Intelligence Service writes about Kadyrov is true, then this could, and I repeat with emphasis on the word “could,” be the beginning of a domino effect.

Chechnya lives by its own laws. Chechnya is an enclave that does not obey what Moscow does. However, it takes a considerable amount of money from Moscow as a payment for loyalty, for being part of the Russian Federation. With the possible departure of Kadyrov, very terrible processes will begin, because clannishness and a specific way of solving problems in Chechnya have remained. This means that Kadyrov’s clan will begin to destroy other clans to settle scores and assert authority physically.

It is true; it is not a joke. This is something realistic, and I have been told personally by Chechens who are not in Chechnya right now, but know very well what is happening there and are waiting for this moment. So, the possibility of destabilizing the whole of Russia through Chechnya is real and could grow when Kadyrov is gone. Let’s hope that with the start of these events, other regions in the Russian Federation will start thinking about whether they should remain vassals of the Kremlin or think about other options for their people and their countries in the future.

To understand the clannishness in Chechnya: While other countries are primarily governed by legislation, Chechnya is governed by traditions that have been developed there for centuries, if not millennia, and which mean much more in the eyes of the Chechen people than any formal paragraphs in a particular law. These traditions imply that if you have been offended, the offender must be punished for it. Well, this usually means being destroyed. I think it’s clear to everyone how they are killed now.

If there is destabilization in Chechnya, can we assume that the Russian security forces and the Russian government will turn their attention there and away from Ukraine? I have doubts about this, because there is nothing to switch to. That is, if you look at and analyze what is happening on the frontlines-when they move elite units from one area to another to hold back a small, widespread front – it means that there is no one to do anything else. Of course, cannon fodder exists, but I don’t think any FSB, Interior Ministry, or Rosgvardia unit will enter Chechnya because it will stay there. That is, this is not a case where the territory is really controlled by the Russian Federation.

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This could provoke internal unrest that could spread from Chechnya further on. It’s not just Chechnya; it’s the entire North Caucasus. If it catches fire, imagine what it would mean against what happened when Yevgeny Prigozhin marched victoriously across half of Russia, meeting no resistance from these same security forces. Well, people who are privy to the intricacies of all these things say that all these forces are more paper than real. The FSB is number one in spying on those who dare to express any opposition thoughts. To disperse grandparents, if they gather somewhere, or students – that’s where the Rosgvardia comes in. When it comes to resistance to something massive, there are simply not enough of them physically. Secondly, they don’t even have the appropriate weapons. What is a police station? It is a few dozen people with pistols, but not with heavy weapons, tanks, airplanes, and so on. What is currently accumulated in Chechnya cannot be handled with guns. If you have to suppress it, you have to suppress it powerfully.

During the first and second Chechen wars, to break the Chechens’ resistance, Russia used aviation, which is said to have “ironed” the territory by area, killing everyone. The investigation of this crime of genocide is still going ahead, by the way. I think we will wait until Russia’s crimes in the Chechen Republic are remembered. So, I repeat once again, we have very interesting events ahead of us, but the main one will be the breaking of the back of the Russian army on the fields of Ukraine.

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